Everyone has a theory about spam. Most are variations of the Barney in Florida Hypothesis. If you send out 18 million ads for v1-agara you only need to sell one little bottle to make a profit – and Barney in Florida will probably buy one. The Barney in Florida Hypothesis is not only wrong, it’s actually a sales pitch.

Here’s my hypothesis.

No-one has made any money from spam since about 1998 except the people who sell spamming software. Their pitch is that if you send out 18 million ads for v1-agara you only need to sell one bottle (to Barney in Florida) to make a profit because our spamming software only costs $28.95.

Barney doesn’t buy v1-agara, he buys spamming software. He has evidence that Barney will buy spamming software because Barney just bought some…and if Barney is stupid enough to buy spamming software, maybe he’ll buy some v1-agara too. Hey! He only needs to sell one bottle to break even.

It’s a pyramid scheme.

In a couple of years, everyone who might wager $28.95 on an 18 million-to-one bet will have all the spamming software they need and the whole spam period will be consigned to the dustbin of internet history.

Except phishing. Phishing is with us for a while longer.